The New Health Dialogue

A bunch of enterprising AP reporters surveyed the 39 House Democrats who voted "no" on the original House health care bill -- and found nine willing to state on the record that they would consider a "yes" vote on a final package based on the Senate bill and a set of House-friendly changes backed by President Obama. (Of course, there are also "yes" votes that could turn to "no," either because of abortion or re-election thunder clouds back home).

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic leadership need to sew up 216 votes (it's usually 218 but recent vacancies on both sides reduce the count). She has exactly 216 now -- although that counts Bart Stupak as a yes, which is unlikely given the Michigan Democrat's stance on the Senate bill abortion language. So 215 is more realistic -- before we count any changed votes in either direction.

President Obama before his summit last week outlined proposed changes in the legislation, aimed at bridging some differences between the House and Senate legislation, particularly regarding affordability of insurance. He is supposed to add details and updates in a speech Wednesday, perhaps incorporating some Republican ideas outlined at the summit last week. (That Sen. Tom Coburn idea about having "mystery patients" detecting fraud and abuse seems to have captured a lot of people's imagination.)

Even if Obama does incorporate a few Republican suggestions, he is not likely to pick up Republican votes given the political dynamic and the battle lines. So that means Pelosi will be looking for a handful of vote switchers, particularly among fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats who may be more comfortable with some of the cost-curve bending provisions in the Senate bill, particularly in Medicare. The Senate version also does not contain a public insurance option -- which House progressives had championed but many Blue Dogs opposed.

The AP team wrote:

Some of the top targets may be the nine lawmakers who told The Associated Press directly or through spokesmen that they're undecided or undeclared. Three are retiring and don't have to worry about getting punished by voters, and five others are freshmen, mostly in competitive districts -- lawmakers whom Pelosi will give a pass on tough votes when she can, but might call on when a major piece of legislation hangs in the balance.

The retiring lawmakers are Reps. Brian Baird of Washington and Bart Gordon and John Tanner of Tennessee. The freshmen are Suzanne Kosmas of Florida, Frank Kratovil of Maryland, Scott Murphy of New York, Glenn Nye of Virginia and Michael McMahon of New York. The ninth is Rick Boucher of Virginia. Several lawmakers' offices did not reply to the AP queries and a handful of others said they would definitely vote "no."

Unlike the Senate, every House member (except for those retiring) is up for re-election in November. Some also face primaries. Many of those who are leery of health reform come from districts that voted for John McCain over President Obama in 2008 so this is a tough vote. Opponents of reform have depicted the legislation as a costly government takeover, a false message but one which has resonated with a slice of the public. On the other hand, polls consistently show that the same voters who say they don't  like the Democratic health reform plans then go on to express approval of its key components. That creates an opening for Democrats, including these Blue Dogs, to pass a bill, and go home and sell it.  As Robert Crittendon, a physician who leads a coalition of pro-reform groups told the AP, "I see this as being a very salable issue. You can break through and start showing what's in the bill that's helpful to them, because it really matches what they want."

(Hat tip to the New Republic's Jonathan Chait for spotting an earlier version of the AP story.)